The Uncertainty Module and IPCC Guidelines

With financial support from Natural Resources Canada, moja global has developed a scientific concept paper that lays out how an uncertainty module for the FLINT can be designed.

The paper describes the requirements for implementing two commonly used IPCC methods for combining uncertainties, i.e. propagation of error and Monte Carlo within the FLINT framework. Coding of the module will commence when additional resources are available.

Uncertainty analysis is essential to establish the accuracy of reported emissions. In addition, the uncertainty analysis can identify how an emissions estimation system can most effectively be improved.  Uncertainty analysis is also an important component of emissions mitigation planning.

IPCC Methods and Guidelines

The scientific paper gives in depth details on the FLINT framework and the two commonly used IPCC methods for combining uncertainties, i.e. propagation of error and Monte Carlo.

Guidance on uncertainties is provided by Volume 1, Chapter 3 of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (NGGI). However, there are no uncertainty levels that must be adhered to and no punitive measures in place.

The paper was prepared by Rob de Ligt, Juha Metsaranta, Cris Brack, Marcela Olguin, Sarah Buchan, Stephen Roxburgh, Werner Kurz, Max Fellows, James Leitch and Malcom Francis.

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