To prevent deforestation, decision-makers need reliable information about where it’s likely to occur and why. Using historical data to create a single baseline deforestation rate across a whole country or even within a jurisdiction fails to accurately capture the spatial heterogeneity.
Instead, we calculate a deforestation risk score for every pixel in the landscape. The result is a BAU deforestation scenario that uses data on real local drivers, seamlessly ‘nesting’ estimates from the pixel to national scale using a methodology that can be applied consistently in any country.
This approach will help policy-makers to create incentives for project developers to focus on areas at most risk.
Many thanks to all collaborators!