Below the implementation of a FLINT based MRV system is layed out in phases (aka sprints) of 5 months.
This is only a generic plan. Each country will have its own policy priorities and idiosyncratic circumstances. These will determine the actual focus of each sprint but the principle of how each sprint improves on every aspect of a complete system is demonstrated by this generic plan.
Each cycle the system will produce results and on the basis of these results the next phase (sprint) is planned. Hence the sprints below are only indicative of what could be done and they might be adjusted to the policy needs or findings coming up during the implementation of the earlier sprints. The sprints will be worked out in more detail to develop a budget and identify the necessary human resources.
The steps in the generic plan need to be explained in more detail in a generic implementation template which explains what each bullet below means and the purpose of each step.
The implementation period used below stretches over almost 3 years, i.e. 32 months. Of course an MRV system needs upgrading and adjustments after that period but countries can continue the 5 month cycles of improvement after the first 36 months on their own if necessary with support from the user community around moja global.
Preparation phase: Months 1 and 2: Preparation
- Administrative arrangements
- Identification of pilot area and collect all available data.
- Decide on Policy and Reporting Priorities for MRV system (International reporting, results based payments related to forests, National reporting, etc.)
- Basic training: At least 2 staff will be trained in running the FLINT including installing an example version including data.
- Review existing Land Cover time series (national and global) + decide on approach for (additional) land-cover maps for the project area. An approach to generate wall-to-wall land cover maps will be developed. Backlog years might be covered by an external party so the in-house team can focus on future maps.
- Review available data (NFI, reporting, classes, etc.) and select classifiers
- Review existing landscape, key tree species, past and planned disturbances/management
- Prioritise the most common existing disturbances (e.g. degradation)
Sprint 1: Month 3 to 7: Low accuracy working concept
- Collect data and set up sharing agreements between departments involved
- Training in land cover / land use time series mapping
- Develop forest/non-forest 2010-2020 timeseries (possibly using contractor)
- Approximate growth curves for key forest types using available data
- Volume to biomass conversion based on estimates
- Calibrate fire disturbance matrix for different fires based on three indicators: fire types, location and size. (Fire is an example, it will change from country to country depending on local priorities.)
- Map fire events (including type and size) and add them to a data format that can be read by the FLINT-based system
- Review computer resources available. Plan implementation in line with available computer capacity.
- Combine all new data, run system, analyse results, report to policy makers
- Compare pilot area results with previous reporting for the same areas
- Uncertainty analysis and resulting suggestions for improvements
Sprint 2: Month 8 to 12: All pools, 3 disturbances, 1 growth curve, 20 years time series
- Governance and data sharing systems (portal for data sharing)
- Training in growth curve development
- Develop forest/non-forest 2000-2010 time series
- Develop 1 forest growth curve based the Tier 3 Broadleaf model, alometrics and the related national data + volume to biomass conversion (Can change based on National priorities.)
- Verification and data collection from the field
- Parameterise model for litter fall, fine roots, decomposition
- Calibrate or develop a hurricane disturbance matrix based on the national data for hurricane impact. (Or any other disturbance that is the next highest priority.)
- Software and database set up
- Projection carbon impact of planned mitigation interventions for forest and estimate the effort needed to meet the targets currently included in the NDC.
- Combine all new data, run system, analyse results, report to policy makers
- Compare pilot area results with previous reporting for the same areas
- Uncertainty analysis and resulting suggestions for improvements
Sprint 3: Month 13 to 17: All pools, 4 disturbances; forest growth curves
- Training on forest science carbon modeling to improve the capacity to identify areas for improvement of the MRV system
- Scale up pilot area to other area of similar size
- Map forest classes, plantations, agriculture (by key groups: pasture, woody crops, annual crops) 2000-2020 timeseries
- Quality control of land cover time series
- Verification and data collection from the field
- Develop growth curves for key forest types + volume to biomass conversion
- Add and roll-back litter fall, fine roots, decomposition
- Calibrate a forest degradation disturbance matrix. Possibly a module will be developed to estimate degradation on the basis of proxies. Additional review of literature and national data will determine which approach is most effective. (Or another disturbance that is the next priority.)
- Software and database set up
- Refine carbon impact projections of planned interventions
- Combine all new data, run system, analyse results, report to policy makers
- Compare pilot area results with previous reporting for the same areas
- Uncertainty analysis and resulting suggestions for improvements
Sprint 4: Month 18 to 22: All pools, grasslands, 5 disturbances
- Training in next priority subject
- Scale up to national level and apply all available disturbances and refinements (e.g. parameters, growth curves, etc.) to all areas (i.e. new and already calculated in previous sprints.)
- Add grasslands to 2000-2020 timeseries
- Quality control of land cover time series
- Verification and data collection from the field
- Develop growth curves for additional forest types or woody crops + volume to biomass conversion
- Add and roll-back litter fall, fine roots, decomposition for additional forest types
- Calibrate a generic crop module (for annual crops and woody crops) including an agricultural soils module. (or other module depending on national priorities.)
- Software and database set up
- Refine projections related to mitigation efforts necessary to meet NDCs.
- Combine all new data, run system, analyse results, report to policy makers
- Compare pilot area results with previous reporting for the same areas
- Uncertainty analysis and resulting suggestions for improvements
Sprint 5: Month 23 to 27: All pools, livestock, 6 key disturbances
- Training in module development starting with design of disturbance matrices and moving towards developing parameter based modules
- Scale up to national level and apply all available disturbances and refinements (e.g. parameters, growth curves, etc.) to all areas (i.e. new and already calculated in previous sprints.)
- Add livestock to 2000-2020 timeseries (Or other data depending on national priorities)
- Quality control of land cover time series
- Verification and data collection from the field
- Develop growth curves for additional forest types + volume to biomass conversion
- Add and roll-back litter fall, fine roots, decomposition for additional forest types
- Calibrate livestock and manure management module
- Software and database set up
- Refine projections
- Combine all new data, run system, analyse results, report to policy makers
- Compare pilot area results with previous reporting for the same areas
- Uncertainty analysis and resulting suggestions for improvements
Sprint 6: Month 28 to 32: All pools, wetlands, 7 disturbances
- Training in next priority subject
- Apply all available disturbances and refinements (e.g. parameters, growth curves, etc.) to whole country
- Add wetlands to 2000-2020 timeseries
- Quality control of land cover time series
- Verification and data collection from the field
- Develop growth curves for additional forest types and/or agricultural crops + volume to biomass conversion
- Add and roll-back litter fall, fine roots, decomposition for additional forest types
- Calibrate woodproducts module including the collection of the necessary data
- Software and database set up
- Refine projections
- Combine all new data, run system, analyse results, report to policy makers
- Compare pilot area results with previous reporting for the same areas
- Uncertainty analysis and resulting suggestions for improvements
Possible disturbances and Modules that can be selected depending on national circumstances and policy interests
- Land use change
- Fire (various types)
- Deforestation (slash-burn, harvest, various types)
- Forest Management
- Forest degradation (caused by disturbances that cannot be detected easily: e.g. firewood collection)
- Afforestation / Rehabilitation / Restoration
- Generic insect disturbance
- Crop Module
- Livestock and manure module
- Grasslands Module
- Wetlands Module
- Woodproducts Module
- Others as required
